31 December 2006

what to look forward to in asymmetrical warfare

Golly, what do you think is in store for us over the next 3-5 years in Iraq... let's look at some examples from history in which a global power tried to fight in an asymmetrical war against an opposing force that was distributed (not concentrated in one place), in their native environment, and filled with the enthusiasm of their own righteousness:

- Afghanistan. The USSR tried for 20 years to occupy/convert/take over Afghanistan. They moved in, but were constantly harried and the costly effort eventually failed. They pulled their soldiers out without succeeding in doing anything other than ruining the property values in Kabul.

- Vietnam. Didn't go well. Ended only when the invading forces gave up after thousands died and billions wasted. Never really did unseat the opposition. 30 years later, trade relations are "normalized", if that really means anything.

- Northern Ireland. Been flaring up, though it had been quiet just previously. 205 years of conflict with an imperial power doesn't just dry up.

... oh yeah, and there was this little clump of colonies across the Atlantic that declared their independence from England a few hundred years ago. They were fairly successful at defending themselves against an imperial army based thousands of miles away.

So what makes anyone think that this asymmetrical war is suddenly going to be radically different? Well, the price tag will be higher - more zeros after the dollar sign than ever before... that'll be different, I guess.

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